Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2000-2022 dönemine ait ortalama yıllık verileri kullanarak, seçilmiş düşük ve orta gelirli ülkelerde sosyal, ekonomik ve politik faktörlerin afet kaynaklı maliyetler ve afetlerden etkilenen kişi sayısı üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Çalışmada afet öncesi ve afet sonrası literatürde önemli olduğu düşünülen kentleşme, beşeri sermaye, yolsuzluk, politik istikrar ve kişi başına düşen gelir değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişkenler olarak afet hasarı, afetlerden etkilenen kişi sayısı ve afet hasarlarının GSYH içindeki payı kullanılmıştır. Yatay kesit analizi ile tahmin edilen iki modelde kişi başına düşen gelir artışının afet hasarlarını ve etkilenen kişi sayısını azalttığını, ancak daha fazla artan refahın bu hasarları arttırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmada, beşeri sermaye artışının, kentleşme oranının ve yolsuzluğun azaltılmasının afet hasarlarını düşürdüğü sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Doğal afet hasarları üzerinde etkili olan faktörlerin belirlenmesi, karar alıcıların gelecekteki olaylara hazırlanmasına yardımcı olacaktır. Böylece afet yönetimine ilişkin çalışmalar gelecekte yaşanabilecek afetlerde ekonomik kayıpların azaltılmasını sağlayabilecektir.

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